CYJ Key Points
- Saizeriya (7581 JP) raises menu prices by an average of 6% from 29 October 2026. The Milano-style doria goes from ¥300 to ¥320 (+6.7%).
- The increase is driven by imported cost inflation: a weak yen, a 12% rise in imported wheat and a 4.9% rise in the minimum wage.
- Even after the increase, Saizeriya remains the cheapest major chain. Customers we interviewed in Tokyo all said they accept the new prices.
- We estimate the increase adds about ¥6.6bn to operating profit in FY8/2027, roughly offsetting Japanese cost inflation and supporting the company’s ¥21.2bn guidance (+29%).
日本語要約
- サイゼリヤ（7581）は2026年10月29日から、メニュー価格を平均約6％引き上げる。看板商品の「ミラノ風ドリア」は300円から320円（＋6.7％）となる。平日ランチ、モーニング、100円のワインは据え置き。
- 背景には、円安による輸入コストの上昇（9月の輸入物価指数は円ベースで前年比＋24.5％）、輸入小麦の政府売渡価格の12％引き上げ、最低賃金の4.9％引き上げなどがある。
- 値上げ後も主要外食チェーンの中で最も安い水準を維持する。当社が東京都内のサイゼリヤ10店舗で幅広い年齢層の顧客に聞き取りを行ったところ、全員が新価格を「受け入れられる」と回答した。セブン-イレブンの弁当も量が減ったように感じるなど、物価上昇が広がっていることが理由に挙がった。
- 当社試算では、今回の値上げは2027年8月期の営業利益を約66億円押し上げ、国内のコスト上昇をほぼ吸収し、会社計画（営業利益212億円、前期比＋29％）を下支えする見込み。
- CYJの見解：小幅で、むしろ遅すぎた値上げであり、消費者は受け入れざるを得ない。国内事業の利益率改善につながるとみる。
What is changing
On 14 October Saizeriya announced its first broad menu increase in decades. Most dishes rise by ¥20–30: ¥300 dishes go to ¥320, and ¥400 dishes, including the meat sauce spaghetti and hamburg steak, go to ¥420–430 (+5.0% to +7.5%). 24 stores in leisure facilities and urban areas rise about 10%. Weekday lunch sets, morning menus and the ¥100 house wine are unchanged.
Japanese media call this the first increase “in about six years”, because in 2020 prices were rounded to tax-inclusive figures. We see that as a format change. Main menu prices have been held since the 1999 listing, so in substance this is the first real increase on core dishes in over 25 years. Saizeriya has also said it will now adjust prices with conditions, ending its long policy of holding them.
Why now: imported inflation and a weak yen
Saizeriya imports much of its menu – wheat, cheese, meat and tomato – so it feels import prices directly. In September, Japan’s import prices rose 24.5% year on year in yen terms versus 17.9% in contract currencies: the weak yen added about 6.6 points. Imported wheat costs 12% more from October, the highest in three and a half years, and USD/JPY sits around ¥158. Labour costs are rising too, with the minimum wage guideline up 4.9%. The company itself said its efforts to absorb these costs were “not enough”.
The mildest increase in the industry
Saizeriya is the last major chain to move, and it moves least. Since 2019 the McDonald’s hamburger has risen 73% over four increases (¥110 to ¥190) and Yoshinoya’s regular gyudon 29% (¥387 to ¥498). Saizeriya’s flagship rises once, by ¥20. After the increase a Milano doria still costs about two-thirds of a gyudon.
What our Tokyo store checks found
CYJ visited 10 Saizeriya stores across Tokyo, where in-store notices showed the new prices taking effect at the end of October. At many stores we interviewed customers of different ages at random. Every customer said the new prices were acceptable. The most common reason was that prices have risen everywhere – several pointed out that even 7-Eleven bento boxes seem noticeably smaller. Customers now compare Saizeriya with a backdrop of rising prices, not with its own old menu, and they appreciate a visible price rise over hidden shrinkflation.
Earnings impact
Japan is Saizeriya’s low-margin business: it earned ¥5.6bn on ¥149.8bn of sales in the nine months to May 2026, a 3.7% margin. At that margin, every 1% of price that sticks adds about a quarter of Japan’s operating profit.
| Scenario | Traffic after hike | Revenue impact (¥bn) | Operating profit impact (¥bn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 0% | +8.5 | +8.5 |
| Base | −2% | +4.8 | +6.6 |
| Bear | −5% | −0.8 | +3.9 |
CYJ estimates for FY8/2027: the increase applies for 10 months to 80% of Japanese sales; lost visits cost a 50% contribution margin.
Even the bear case lifts profit, because a price increase drops almost entirely to profit while a lost visit costs only half its revenue. Traffic would have to fall about 9% before the increase stops adding profit. The company guides FY8/2027 revenue of ¥333.7bn (+10.7%) and operating profit of ¥21.2bn (+29.1%).
CYJ view
This is a mild, overdue increase that consumers have little choice but to accept – and our field checks suggest they already do. It repairs Japanese margins and underpins guidance. The risks to watch are traffic in November–January, trading down to lunch sets, a further yen fall or another wheat increase in April 2027, and a slowdown in China.
Sources: Saizeriya news release (14 Oct 2026); company results via Matsui Securities and Ryutsuu News; Bank of Japan; MAFF; Bloomberg; Pricey; CYJ field research. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
